Multivariate analyses of 5-year prospective data from the CLEK Study cohort showed that baseline corneal curvature, contact lens wear, corneal staining, and younger age were predictive of the development of corneal scarring. The 5-year incidence of scarring is 13.7% for the overall sample and 38.0% for those eyes with corneal curvature greater than 52 D that wore contact lenses. Contact lens wear increased the risk of incident scarring more than 2-fold. These findings suggest a causal contribution of contact lens wear to corneal scarring in keratoconus